Who’s Minding the Store?

This is what happens when you put an idiot in charge of the store, the store and everyone associated with it suffers . . . mightily. I speak, of course, of the twitter-in-chief, Donald Trump, whose latest proclamation on economic policy has the markets shaking and threatens to undermine a trade system that for decades has been responsible for fostering economic progress throughout the world. Now, the orange-headed buffoon wants to demolish that system and plunge the world back into a dog-eat-dog, tariff-walled trade system that was foundational to World War II.

He just has announced that he intends to slap tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Before that he slapped tariffs on imports of solar panels and washing machines. As he said, it’s easy to slap on tariffs; unfortunately, it’s not a very bright way to level the economic playing field.

Assessing tariffs on imported goods may in the short run help some domestic manufacturers, but longer term such an action is self-defeating. Take for instance, solar panels. The Chinese manufacture close to 90 percent of the solar panels in the world. How do they do this? Lower labor costs for one, but principally by subsidizing their solar panel manufacturers. Is this fair? No, but combatting that by slapping tariffs on the imports of solar panels doesn’t really help American manufacturers of the solar panels because they produce such a small fraction of the world supply to begin with. Instead, what it does is raise the cost of solar panels in the United States and stunt consumer demand for the product. The result: a nascent solar power industry, which includes more than just the manufacture of solar panels, withers. Will this hurt the Chinese? Not really. They will just intensify their sale of solar panels to other countries that are working as fast as they can to build up their own solar industries. The United States solar industry will be left in the economic dust of the rest of the world and will be hard pressed to recover and quite possibly never be competitive.

Similarly, slapping tariffs on steel and aluminum imports may help higher-cost domestic suppliers of the products, but it will raise the cost of products that use steel and aluminum in the manufacture of their products, such as automobiles, the construction industry, semi-conductors, etc. Who pays the price ultimately for these tariffs? The consumers, of course.

More importantly, however, using tariffs as trade policy undermines the trade system that for decades was so assiduously developed and nurtured by the United States following World War II through the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) process. Through this process the system of tariffs that the world followed prior to World War II and pushed the Japanese to wage war on the United States, was gradually dismantled, and a system of tariff controls was instituted that helped lower tariffs worldwide and foster greater trade and economic development.

This is not to say there were not tariffs, but there was a system in place for countries to air their differences and to find mutually agreeable tariff and trade arrangements to the benefit of all. Unilaterally slapping tariffs on imports to help domestic industries that were not very competitive to begin with undermines the GATT system and ushers the world back into one of cut-throat competition and tariff walls.

Does this mean that the United States or any country for that matter should just sit back and let its domestic industries die on the vine and not do anything to protect them? Absolutely not, but hiking tariffs is a simplistic solution, in other words, no solution, to a much more complicated problem. There is a system in place for dealing with countries, such as China, whose governmental policies unfairly help their manufacturers at the expense of foreign manufacturers. It should be used. In the meantime, governments can find other ways to help their industries without having a deleterious down line effect on other segments of their economies tied to their industries.

First of all, governments should take a serious look at their domestic industries to determine what position they occupy in the overall economy and to what extent they possess a natural comparative advantage over foreign manufacturers. If a foreign manufacturer has a natural comparative advantage over domestic manufacturers and the industry does not represent a significant share in the economy of the country, i.e., represents a small share of GDP and employs a small percentage of the labor force, does it make sense to hike tariffs just for its benefit that will hurt associated industries and the economy as a whole? Of course, not. But that is exactly what Mr. Trump is doing.

Better to provide tax incentives and similar tools that in effect amount to a subsidy to bolster the industry and to help make it more competitive domestically and internationally. Alternatively, or additionally, the government should be fostering policies such as tax incentives for those industries that do occupy significant percentages of the GDP and employ large segments of the population to make them stronger and even more competitive.

Riding a dying horse gets one nowhere except stranded when the horse dies, which is what Mr. Trump has been doing by backing the coal industry at the expense of robust and growing industries such as solar and wind power, which are occupying an ever-growing share of the economy and the labor force.

One wonders who is advising Mr. Trump on his economic policies, or is he listening solely to the voices in his head and going with his infamous “intuition”? It would seem the latter to be the case, which is unfortunate because his policies, if one can even call them that, are only going to cause suffering in the United States store long after he has departed the scene.

2 thoughts on “Who’s Minding the Store?

  1. Kevin says:
    Kevin's avatar

    I would suggest, from my position outside your country that this President, more than any other, listens only to the voices inside his head. When any of his advisors opinions happen to coincide, usually purely by chance, he calls them great and wise. As we have witnessed though he wastes no time in backtracking on this stance by sacking them as soon as their opinion may differ from the voices he hears.

    Ultimately the position the United States store finds itself in can only be laid at the feet of the electorate as they are the ones who put the storekeeper in charge. Dare I say it, but maybe, just maybe, the electoral college needs to be looked at. I’m at a loss to understand why in this day and age the person with the least votes overall can get elected to what is tantamount to the most powerful post in world politics. I don’t think for one minute Hillary would have been the answer by the way, she is just the person who got the most votes on this occasion.

    Keep up the good fight and maintain the faith that one day the world will be truly free of oppression and tyranny; I live in hope!

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    • espyjre says:
      espyjre's avatar

      I agree that ultimately in a democracy the electorate is responsible for whomever they put in charge of the store, but as you note, the person who actually they elected was not put into power because of the electoral college, an anachronism just like the 2nd amendment to the constitution that was the creation of the founding fathers. While Hillary may not have been the answer, I believe she would have been so much preferable to the Donald, and her warnings of what would come to pass if he were elected were, in fact, quite prescient, though by no means was she the only one to make them.
      Ironically, while Mr. Trump most assuredly ran for President to hold the “most powerful post in world politics” his very actions are undermining that very post and turning the United States into very much a third-rate power, and most probably if he is elected to a second term, which is a very real possibility, that process of undermining the country and its position in world politics will be complete by the end of the second term. How quickly things can change given the right circumstances.

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