The Puppeteer and the Puppet

Who really is responsible for the upcoming summit talks between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un? Donald Trump because of his bluster against the North Korean leader? Hardly. It’s China. Who also benefits from Trump’s recent decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal? The United States? Hardly. It’s China. Who benefits from Trump’s decision to move its embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem? Is it Israel? The United States? Hardly. It’s China.

Stay with me here because they are all connected.

Months ago, when Trump met with President Xi of China, he reputedly asked the Chinese for assistance in putting pressure to bear on North Korea to cease its development of nuclear weapons. The Chinese did, but not because Trump asked, but because it was good for China. China’s leader summoned the North Korean leader to China and told him that he was to make nice with the United States, that he was to cease his development of nuclear weapons and to reach an accord with the United States. That is exactly what he is doing. He is not about to bite the hand that feeds him. And that is China.

Trump and Kim will sit down and they will come to an agreement in which Kim agrees to cease his nuclear program in exchange for a promise by the United States not to invade North Korea, to draw down its forces on the Korean Peninsula and to provide economic aid and investment to North Korea.

Trump will be declared a great negotiator, and his esteem in the eyes of the U.S. electorate will rise, which is exactly what the Chinese want. They want Trump to get re-elected. They need Trump to be re-elected. Why? Because with Trump as the head of state of the United States that gives China free rein to do what they want in Asia and elsewhere.

In Trump the Chinese know they are dealing with someone incapable of thinking strategically, who thinks of only one thing: himself. In Obama they knew they had a leader who thought strategically, and who was working to stem Chinese influence; hence, the Iran nuclear deal and the Trans Pacific Trade Pact (TPP). Now that both of those are dead because of Trump, that leaves China free to consolidate its position in Asia and to take advantage of a further embroiled Middle East.

Who really benefits from a de-nuclearized Korean peninsula? Yes, it lessens tensions and makes a nuclear conflict less likely, which is in everyone’s interest, but the Chinese get the best deal. If the U.S. draws down its forces in Korea, that makes the U.S. less of a threat to China directly from the Korean peninsula and makes the U.S. weaker militarily overall in Asia, which is in China’s best interest because then they can militarize in the South China Sea more readily without fear of the U.S. stopping them. With a U.S. and North Korean deal, China doesn’t have to pay so much to prop up North Korea. The U.S. will do it for them.

Now that Trump has basically scuttled the Iran nuclear deal, and with Iran and Israel fighting one another in Syria, there is added incentive in Iran’s mind to renew its quest for nuclear weapons. Add to this Trump’s decision to move its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, of which there is absolutely no benefit to the United States, nor Israel, because it only heightens tensions and conflict in the Middle East, still a region of strategic necessity to the U.S. and Europe because of the oil. The oil must flow.

Continued tensions and fighting in the Middle East will occupy the world’s and in particular the United States’ attention, allowing the Chinese to operate at will in Asia, building up their military position in the South China Sea and bringing pressure to bear on the countries of Asia to reach trade accords very beneficial to China.

Ah, but you say, China is negotiating with the United States to end the burgeoning trade war between the two countries. Yes, but who is in control there? It isn’t the United States. What bargaining chips does the U.S. have in those negotiations? Trump exited the TPP. He refuses to work in concert with Europe and other allies, insulting them whenever he can. Where is his leverage now with China? Had Trump stayed in the TPP, had he worked in concert with Europe and other allies to present a united front against China instead of imposing tariffs that mostly damage allies, that would be some real leverage to get China to cease its predatory trade practices and to abide by recognized international norms. Since because of Trump’s actions the United States has no leverage, China will not be held to account on trade, not in any meaningful way.

The truth is the Chinese think very strategically and long term. The whole North Korean nuclear gambit was not cooked up in North Korea; it was planned in Beijing. All they had to do was wait for a leader like Trump to emerge in the United States. Now that they have him, they’re not about to let him fail. Hence, the upcoming summit in Singapore between Trump and Kim and the inevitable agreement that will most benefit China but to an uninformed American electorate make Trump into a hero. And Trump being Trump, he will not lose any time in boasting of his great feat that was in fact engineered by China.

Similarly, it is in China’s interest, if for no other reason than to occupy the United States’ attention, for there to be continued and heightened conflict in the Middle East. Anything to take the eyes of the United States off the far east to give China the opportunity to do what they want there. Also, with Iran once again isolated and a nuclear pariah, that makes them ripe to become an ally of China as well as Russia.

The trouble with Trump, which benefits China, is that the man doesn’t listen to anyone but the voices in his head. He was a failed businessman, having gone bankrupt four times such that no reputable banks would lend him any more money, and he had to go to corrupt Russian Oligarchs to fund his business schemes. He is incapable of thinking strategically, something the Chinese, on the other hand, are expert at.

As long as Trump remains in office, the United States will be the puppet of China manipulated at every turn by a master puppeteer.

Where Melanin Trumps Considered Thought

Regardless of whether or not the Iran deal was a good one or a bad one, which could be debated ad nauseam, it is obvious the Donald’s decision to pull the U.S. out of the deal had absolutely nothing to do with the merits of the agreement or if Iran was violating its terms, as Trump claimed, without proof, in his announcement. The reason the Orange Monster pulled the U.S. out of the deal was because it had been negotiated by the Obama administration.

That was the reason and the only reason for Trump’s decision. There were no other considerations made. He did not evaluate whether it would be better for the U.S. and the world to stay in or exit. He made no evaluation of the consequences for U.S. and world businesses, or the political and economic consequences for the Middle East. Such considerations, which assume a measure of prudence and thought on behalf of the orange man do not and have never entered the vacuum of Mr. Trump’s brain.

Trump is obsessed by one thing, other than the gratification of his third leg and his narcissistic ego, and that is to eviscerate any memory, any vestige of the fact that the United States had a black man as its head of state. It’s as simple as that.

The political pundits can pontificate all they want about Trump’s actions, speculating about what geopolitical considerations might have been weighed in the decision of whether or not to remain a part of the Iran deal, but one salient fact remains: Trump squashed the Iran deal because it had been considered a foreign policy triumph of President Barack Obama.

Before Trump became President he vowed to scuttle the Iran deal without explaining why or citing anything particular about the deal that he found so objectionable. All he would say was that it was a very bad deal. He said the same thing regarding the Trans-Pacific Trade Pact (TPP), which he exited as one of his first orders of business upon entering office. Scuttling that deal gave China the green light to go ahead with its military ambitions in the region and to force the Pacific Rim countries, especially in Southeast Asia, who have a long resentment of China, to heel to China’s dictates.

The whole purpose of the TPP, again negotiated by the Obama administration, was to present a buffer to Chinese ambitions. Now, that buffer is gone. An opportunity to check China and exert American, western, liberal, democratic influence was wasted. And why? Because Mr. Trump could not stand the fact that the agreement had been negotiated by a black man. Was the agreement perfect? No, but no agreement ever is. It was, however, a solid effort to maintain American influence in Asia, which would have been good for the American economy and, obviously, the other signatory countries believed it would have been good for them and their economies as well.

The truth is Trump is quite simple to figure out and to predict what he will do. If you happen to have black or brown-skin, you can pretty much figure he will do anything he can to make your life miserable. His entire life has been spent in opposition in some fashion to people of color. In his mind, which is a generous term in his case, the fact of a black President was an intolerable affront to his conception of what the make-up of U.S. society should be. For Trump there is only one American society and that is a white society. Anyone who isn’t white is considered an interloper and not wanted. Trump’s primary motive and focus since gaining the throne of the American presidency has been the systematic expunging of any evidence that the country was once led by a person of color. Pulling the U.S. out of the Iran deal is only just the latest example of that obsession.

What will be the result of Trump’s latest strike against the legacy of President Obama? Certainly, it will not sit well with the Iranian government and people, and if the U.S. sanctions Trump re-imposed by his decision are adhered to by a good portion of the developed world, the Iranian people will definitely suffer, engendering ill will in their hearts toward the U.S. government, and, yes, toward its people. If Trump’s objective as some pundits argue is to effect regime change in Iran, think again. The current Iranian government and governing structure will not go gently into the night. Don’t forget, the current Iranian theocracy is a direct product of decades of American interference in Iran prior to 1979 and its support for a corrupt, ruthless, and very unpopular regime there, notably the Shah Reza Pahlavi. Like elephants the Ayatollahs and their surrogates, who rose up against the Shah in 1979 and have maintained control of the country ever since, have very long and bitter memories and will not take kindly to any effort to oust them from their perch of power and control.

Will Iran resume its nuclear ambitions? It’s quite possible, especially if the European countries adhere to the sanctions. What incentive would Iran have at that point to not resume its nuclear program? Will that make the world safer? With conflict between Israel and Iran in Syria escalating, there will only be further incentive for Iran to double-down on its efforts to perfect its nuclear capability, putting not only Israel in danger but the entire region, the consequence of which could easily spread throughout the world and to an inevitable catastrophic world-wide nuclear conflict.

As a result of the Iran deal negotiated by European countries and the United States under the Obama administration, there was at least the beginnings of some dialogue between the U.S. and Iran as well as the opening of commerce between the two countries, always a helpful mechanism to keep the bombs at bay. Now, that dialogue will end. American companies that had secured contracts for their products with the Iranian government will lose those contracts, costing them billions and costing thousands of jobs. How does that make America great again when it’s nominal leader effectively harms the interests of its own manufacturers?

And what of American influence in the Middle East? Like it or not Iran is a major player there. It cannot be ignored. Trump’s decision to snub Iran will not convince that country’s leaders to sit down with or listen to U.S. negotiators; quite the contrary. And where there is a vacuum of American influence it will be filled by other players, notably Russia and China that will have long-term repercussions for American business interests and influence in the Middle East.

And all of this could happen because of one man’s fixation and enmity toward people who happen to have more melanin in their skin than he does. If it weren’t so absurd, it might actually be comical. Unfortunately, there is nothing funny about someone with such odious ideas and beliefs who has so much power to influence so many people’s lives and so adversely. There is only one word to describe such a situation: tragic.